SCC Preview: Chase begins in New Hampshire

Sunday's race in Loudon, N.H., not only starts the 2009 Chase for the Sprint Cup but also drops the green flag on the third and final segment of this year's ESPN Stock Car Challenge. Just like for those who have an eye on taking the Sprint Cup title, the first race or two of the final challenge will go a long way toward deciding whether you can nail down any bragging rights.

In his bid to capture a record fourth consecutive championship, expect Jimmie Johnson to do what he normally does when the championship hunt begins, storm out of the gate and pound home the message that he's the man to beat. Granted, he doesn't really have the momentum in his favor as he readies for the final 10 races, but Johnson, crew chief Chad Knaus and the over-the-wall gang for the Lowe's Chevrolet all have a way of catching another gear when the playoff starts, and this year should be no exception. Johnson finished second at New Hampshire a year ago, and he again will put himself in position to grab a third win on the 1-mile track. He's also great at scooping up the bonus points for leading laps, having scored 30 more than anybody else by spending time out front in 21 of the first 26 races.

Another guy you can bet will answer the bell is two-time champ Tony Stewart. He was fifth in the spring at Loudon and a runner-up at Phoenix, so his flat-track program is clearly in good shape. The same can be said of Mark Martin, the man who beat Stewart in Phoenix, as well as Martin teammate Jeff Gordon, the New Hampshire runner-up in June, who is coming off a strong third-place run in Richmond.

Kurt Busch raced home second in Richmond on Saturday, ending the regular season on a high note. With three top-10 finishes, including a win and one other top-5, in the past three New Hampshire outings, Busch will be a load. The Blue Deuce has had the speed to run up front at Loudon lately, but when two of past three turned into fuel-mileage strategy races, Busch has been right there under those circumstances, too. It doesn't help that crew chief Pat Tryson announced he was leaving the team at the end of the season, but I don't see that as being a major distraction.

What about "little bro"? Kyle Busch has won at New Hampshire before and comes into this event with absolutely nothing to lose after he was edged out of a spot in the Chase. Busch has been top-5 in three of the past five Sprint Cup races. Shrub is beginning to blossom again and could be poison ivy for the Chase contenders.

Itching to get off to a good start, Denny Hamlin is pumping on all eight cylinders entering the Chase. In the past nine Sprint Cup outings, the FedEx Toyota driver has won two races, coming away with five top-5 finishes, eight top-10s. In seven New Hampshire starts, Hamlin has never finished worst than 15th and has five top-10 finishes, including a summer victory in 2007.

When it comes to finding some cap-friendly faces to fill out your SCC team, you should be able to dig out some solid help for Loudon. Jeff Burton has dropped into the teens and could be a real sleeper, as could teammate Kevin Harvick. I bet you realize that Dale Earnhardt Jr. has led laps in the past three races at New Hampshire and hustled home fifth last fall. Another "junior" is on my radar screen, too. Martin Truex Jr. had a great car in June but was taken out by Kyle Busch, touching off that big restart pileup. In the previous four New Hampshire races, the New Jersey driver had four top-10 finishes, three of them top-5s. Could he be a bargain Sunday? Oh yeah.

If you feel the need to limbo even lower, take a look at Reed Sorenson. The risk-reward ratio for a top-20 with him is pretty good. He's coming off a 16th-place run at Richmond that should have been a little better had he not got caught up in an early-race incident, and he was a 17th-place finisher in the June shootout at Loudon. With a value a little lower than Sorenson, Bobby Labonte is another guy who has the potential to score 100-112 points at a price that could allow you to squeeze another big dog on to your team.

Big Bucks (SCC Value 22.0 and up)

Jimmie Johnson (23.1) is my heavy hitter in this group. In the past two fall races in Loudon, Johnson has kicked off his title bid by leading the most laps and scoring an average of 165 points. Tony Stewart (23.5) and Jeff Gordon (23.3) should be top-5 material, as should Kurt Busch (22.5). Mark Martin (22.3) should be a contender and is a little more cap-friendly. The dark horse in this group is Denny Hamlin (22.8), who's on a roll, and, as I mentioned above, his JGR team has been working all year to get ready for this race.

Serious Coin (SCC Value 20.0 to 22.0)

Not having to worry about the Chase is going to make Kyle Busch (21.1) a very difficult man to deal with. If there's a sure bet in this group, he's probably it. Ryan Newman (21.6) and Juan Pablo Montoya (21.4) should get some of your consideration, as should Clint Bowyer (20.8). The race's defending winner Greg Biffle (21.2) hasn't exactly set the world on fire lately, but keep an eye on him in practice and qualifying. You also might get some help from David Reutimann (20.6) and Brian Vickers (21.0), although this type of track has not been good for Team Red Bull. Marcos Ambrose (20.0) has been good on the short tracks this year and might have to be considered after talking to the crew chiefs before the race.

Budget Boys (SCC Value 13.0 to 20.0)

Jeff Burton (19.5) has struggled this year, but he was heading to the front when he was wrecked at New Hampshire in June. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (18.0), Kevin Harvick (17.9) and Martin Truex Jr. (17.5) could be of some real help. If you need to go even lower in value, Reed Sorenson (16.0) is worth a look. I rank him just behind him A.J. Allmendinger (17.0), Sam Hornish Jr. (16.5) and Bobby Labonte (15.4).

Debit … not credit

In the 22.0 and up group, I think Kasey Kahne (22.0) is going to surprise people as to just how strong he's going to run. However, there are several drivers just above and below his price that I've ranked ahead of the Budweiser Dodge. It's the same issue I have with Carl Edwards (21.8), who's among the guys in the 20.0 to 22.0 range. Greg Biffle concerns me in this group, as does Brian Vickers (21.0). Among the "budget boys," I'm not all that excited about Joey Logano (19.0). His value is a "tweener," low but not low enough to make him all that attractive. Robby Gordon (14.9) has won in Loudon but has finished from 25th to 31st in his past four Loudon starts.

Guru Garrow's gang

I have set as my preliminary team to open the Chase and Segment 3 of Stock Car Challenge (subject to change, as usual, after I chat with the crew chiefs Sunday): Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. and Reed Sorenson.

Mark Garrow covers fantasy racing for ESPN.com.